Why Nigeria May Never Catchup With AI Race: A More Daring Challenge

Technology succeeds on three main pillars: Electricity, Connectivity, and Human Intellectual Capacity. Aside from these three, one additional factor to consider is government policy. However, for the sake of quantifiability, this article focuses on the three key drivers of technology.

From the moment I started learning how computers work, one thing became clear: machines don’t care about your feelings; they care about precise instructions. Whenever you fail to provide what they expect, they either ignore you or frustrate you.

About seven years ago, I almost quit programming because of a recurring issue I couldn’t resolve. After rebuilding my project from scratch for the eighth time, I finally discovered my mistake. This experience taught me a valuable lesson: technology doesn’t discriminate based on who you are; it simply demands the right conditions to function.

Similarly, technology doesn’t care whether you are from the "Giant of Africa," a country with the largest population on the continent, or a significant oil producer. If a nation fails to meet certain conditions, the machines in that country will not run efficiently.

I wrote this piece because I believe someone will read it and take steps to revolutionize one or more of these pillars. To build a strong case, let’s examine each pillar in detail.

1. Electricity: Powering Technology Infrastructure

Machines are not as smart as they seem. For instance, they cannot generate their own electricity; at least, not yet. Despite the revolution of Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI), we’ve inadvertently created a new contender for electricity consumption. In 2022, AI consumed 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity, about 1-2% of the world’s electricity demand. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this figure is expected to double within four years.

To put this into perspective, every prompt you submit to ChatGPT consumes seven times the energy of a typical Google search. That’s significant!

Now consider Nigeria. In 2024 alone, the country suffered multiple power outages due to national grid collapses. According to Reuters, Nigeria’s grid is prone to failure and experienced at least ten partial or total collapses in 2024, caused by faults and vandalism at power installations; not even due to increased technological demand.

The question is: are Nigeria and other African countries ready for the AI era? Machines require a stable and sufficient energy supply to function. Some technology setups cannot afford power outages; restoring systems after a failure could take weeks or even months. While alternative power solutions exist, they are not yet sustainable at scale.

2. Internet: Driving Global Connectivity

Sometimes, I feel my human rights are violated when I spend hours on something that should take seconds. Technology doesn’t care about frustration; it simply requires the right fundamentals.

When we launched instincthub.com, a platform for skill acquisition and knowledge sharing, I was particular about website speed. One day, a friend in the UK visited the site and remarked on its speed. That’s when I realized the issue wasn’t our platform but rather the poor internet infrastructure in Nigeria.

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To be honest, the Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in Nigeria face challenges like inconsistent grid power. For instance, when the grid collapses for more than 10 hours, some ISPs lose connectivity because their power backups are limited. This reveals the interconnectedness of electricity and connectivity challenges.

Consistent 4G internet alone could significantly improve productivity and user experiences. Yet, many Nigerians struggle with speeds below 10 Mbps. If ISPs were relieved of power supply issues, they could focus on innovative solutions to enhance connectivity.

3. Human Intellectual Capacity (HIC): Unlocking Potential

According to Wikipedia, humans can learn, form concepts, reason, and innovate. Nigerians, in particular, value education.

Let me say this; Nigerians love education!

"If you see an average Nigerian family, everybody has a college degree these days," said Udeh, 32, a physical therapist at Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center. "But a post-graduate degree, that's like pride for the family."

In the United States, Nigerians hold the highest levels of education among all ethnic groups, surpassing whites and Asians, according to U.S. Census data. Back home, Nigerian universities graduate over 600,000 individuals annually. However, the question remains: what is the quality of this output?

Personally, I feel we are smart people with moving spaceships lacking the space to dock. Despite our potential, many Nigerians face systemic challenges that limit their ability to innovate and solve problems.

When you tie it all together, the space for Nigerian citizens to dock their ships needs good electricity, internet connectivity, a well-planned transportation system, food security, ability to transact with other countries freely and with no dollarisation or pounds constraints.

These conditions would foster innovation and drastically reduce the aspiration to "japa" (emigrate). Instead, Nigeria might need to limit the number of people moving into the country; just like developed nations do.

4. Actions Required for Nigeria to Compete in the AI Race

I didn’t state this problem to present you with reasons to give up; rather, they should serve as motivation to actually keep pushing until we remove all of these buttle-necks.

With all these problems, at least we should be pitied and accommodated by these technologies. Unfortunately, for things to really work in the continent, we need to figure out all these decencies and build them.

These challenges are not insurmountable. Rather than feeling discouraged, we should use them as motivation to address these issues. Here are actionable steps:

• Prioritize Infrastructure Development: The government must invest in stable electricity and high-speed internet as foundational requirements for technological growth.
• Foster Public-Private Partnerships: Collaboration between the government and private sector can accelerate the development of sustainable power solutions and advanced connectivity.
• Enhance Education Quality: Shift from quantity to quality by aligning educational curricula with real-world problem-solving and innovation.
• Promote Policy Reforms: Policymakers should create an enabling environment for tech innovation through favourable policies and incentives.

The day Nigeria overcomes underlying challenges like constant electricity, good internet connectivity and impact-driven human development, no country will be able to compete with its technological and intellectual capacity.